A wide-open Belmont Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

06/01/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not since 2006 have the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners both failed to show up for the Belmont Stakes. That year the race was won by Jazil, a horse with just one win in seven career starts. This year, 12 colts and geldings are expected to enter the third leg of the Triple Crown and four of them have only recorded a single triumph.

Without Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky in the starting gate, Kentucky Derby runnerup Ice Box is expected to be the morning line favorite. The Nick Zito- trained colt exploded onto the scene with a nose victory over Pleasant Prince in the Florida Derby on March 20, and then might have been best in the Run for the Roses despite the second-place finish.

Two other three-year-olds that will take money at the betting windows are Fly Down, winner of the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park, and Preakness runnerup First Dude. The other nine horses will look to spring the upset the way Summer Bird (11-1) and Da' Tara (38-1) did the last two years.

In the first of two articles featuring the 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes, I'll take a look at six expected longshots and try to make a case for each one, beginning with Spangled Star.

Trained by Richard Dutrow, who lost the Belmont (and the Triple Crown) with Big Brown in 2008, Spangled Star needed six races just to break his maiden. That win came on January 2 at Laurel by 4 1/4-lengths. His next start, and first for Dutrow, was in an entry level allowance/optional claimer on February 24. Spangled Star ran third at 7-2.

Dutrow then sent the chestnut colt into the Grade III Withers Stakes at Aqueduct against stablemate, D' Funnybone. Neither horse won the race as Afleet Again came from off the pace to reel in Ibboyee. Spangled Star got up for third at 28-1

Back in 2002, Sarava won the Belmont at odds of 70-1. Spangled Star won't be that high this Saturday but a victory will be considered even more of an upset since Sarava at least was a stakes winner heading into the race.

Dave in Dixie is another outsider that shouldn't even be entered. He hasn't won a race since last August and his last two attempts were a sixth-place finish in the San Felipe and a fifth-place effort, beaten 16 lengths, in the Illinois Derby. The race at Hawthorne was also his lone trek on traditional dirt so there is a good chance he prefers synthetics.

On the other hand, he did have viable excuses in both races as the two winners, Sidney's Candy and American Lion, won on the lead through slow internal fractions. Dave in Dixie is a horse that needs a very fast pace in front of him since he comes from way back.

The John Sadler trainee is also a horse that runs much better when fresh. That's important since this will be his first start since April 3 - the longest layoff of any of the 12 three-year-olds. If the Belmont pace is very fast, there's a small chance he could fill out the trifecta.

Uptowncharlybrown has not been able to put it all together after back-to-back wins in his first two starts. He ran a lackluster third to Rule and Schoolyard Dreams in the Sam F. Davis, and then finished fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby.

After the unfortunate death of trainer Alan Seewald prior to the Lexington Stakes, longtime assistant Linda White took over bringing in Garrett Gomez to ride. The son of Limehouse failed to grip the Polytrack surface early on, dropping back to next-to-last in the 1 1/16-mile event. However, the colt persevered and closed stoutly to finish third, beaten less than two lengths.

Kiaran McLaughlin is now in charge and he's been working his new three-year- old at Belmont Park in tandem with Trappe Shot.

Uptowncharlybrown should take to the Belmont surface and the distance should also suit. Nevertheless his ability to get the job done against top-flight three-year-olds is a major question mark.

Drosselmeyer is another colt that has had plenty of opportunities to shine. Unfortunately, something has always gone wrong in the end. His connections have now sought a change in jockeys as Mike Smith takes over for Kent Desormeaux, who rode the horse his last five starts.

Purchased for $600,000 as a yearling, the son of Distorted Humor won his first ever start on true dirt, breaking his maiden by six lengths as the 4-5 favorite. He won his next outing at nine furlongs and was then made the 2-1 favorite in the Risen Star Stakes.

Jumping up and winning a graded stakes race was not to be as Drosselmeyer hung like a chandelier in the fourth spot, losing by 1 3/4-lengths to Discreetly Mine. The Bill Mott-trainee was then let go at 9-2 in the Louisiana Derby and once again failed to fire late, finishing third to Mission Impazible by a full length.

Drosselmeyer sat out of the first two legs of the Triple Crown and prepped for the Belmont Stakes by running in the Dwyer on May 8. Sent off as the 7-10 favorite in the seven-horse race, the underachieving colt broke a couple of steps slow and trailed by four lengths right off the bat. He then switched from the rail to the four-path into the stretch and had zero answers for Fly Down, who cruised to a six-length win. One of these days Drosselmeyer will put it all together, but not this Saturday.

Stay Put is one of four horses in the race with three lifetime victories. (Ice Box, Fly Down and Interactif are the others.) He's also the only one of the four without a stakes victory. The son of Broken Vow is coming off a win on Derby Day in an allowance/optional claimer over the slop at Churchill Downs, but like Drosselmeyer, he couldn't get the job done in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, finishing fifth in the two Grade II events.

Stay Put needs a very fast pace in front of him and it's doubtful he'll get it on Saturday. He's also one of only two horses in the race that has failed to earn a Beyer figure over 90. The other is the longshot, Spangled Star.

Stately Victor caught lightning in a bottle at 40-1 in the Blue Grass Stakes and followed that effort up with a decent eighth-place finish in the Derby. Still, based on his running line in the Run for the Roses, he should have finished even higher.

Of the four horses that were in the back-of-the-pack early on, he ended up six lengths behind Ice Box, four in back of Make Music for Me and 1 3/4-lengths behind Lookin At Lucky.

It's true he made a much earlier move than that troika, but tiring at 1 1/4- miles will not help his chances at 1 1/2-miles. Remember, he's yet to win a race on conventional dirt as his two lifetime victories came on grass and over Polytrack.

Of these six longshots, only Drosselmeyer should be in the single-digit range. The betting public might also side with Uptowncharlybrown since he's never been higher than 4-1. Still, it's hard to back any one of these half-dozen colts as they seem up against it in the final leg of the Triple Crown.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.