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San Francisco holds a slim 10-9 edge in its all-time series with Pittsburgh, with the Steelers closing the gap with a 37-16 home rout when these teams last met in 2007. The 49ers had taken four of the previous five bouts in the set prior to that loss, including a 30-14 verdict at Candlestick Park in 2003. The Steelers last won in San Francisco on Nov. 7, 1999, a 27-6 victory.
WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
Another reason why the Steelers may not want to go run-heavy is the strength of San Francisco's sturdy defense in that department. The 49ers have limited the opposition to a league-lows of 70.5 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry and have yet to give up a touchdown on the ground this season, while the team's string of 35 consecutive contests without permitting an individual 100- yard rusher is the third-longest in the NFL since 2000. The unit may not have its best stopper on Monday, though, with All-Pro inside linebacker Patrick Willis (93 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) highly questionable with a hamstring strain that kept him out of last week's loss as well. The Niners were still able to hold Arizona to a mere 55 rushing yards on 23 totes with him out, with emerging star linebacker NaVorro Bowman (113 tackles) and rugged lineman Justin Smith (47 tackles, 6.5 sacks) leading the charge. Skelton came up with 282 passing yards and three touchdowns off the bench, however, with two of those scoring deliveries from 46 yards out or more. The secondary does contain two members with five interceptions each this year in cornerback Carlos Rogers (35 tackles, 15 PD) and free safety Dashon Goldson (54 tackles), while impressive rookie Aldon Smith (27 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Ahmad Brooks (39 tackles, 6 sacks) offer two quality edge rushers from the outside linebacker positions.
San Francisco generally employs a conservative, ball-control philosophy that's been highly effective when workhorse running back Frank Gore (1054 rushing yards, 6 TD, 16 receptions) is at his best. That was certainly the case when the hard-nosed veteran ripped off five consecutive 100-yard games during a midseason tear, but he's been less of a factor down the stretch while fighting through some nagging injuries. The 49ers still sit seventh in the NFL in rushing offense (126.9 ypg) and have a league-low 10 giveaways on the year, with cerebral quarterback Alex Smith (2565 passing yards, 15 TD, 5 INT) having a fine season in what's been essentially a caretaker's role. There are some issues to sort out for the playoffs, though. San Francisco is at the bottom of the standings in red-zone execution, having produced touchdowns on an unwanted 35.6 percent of such drives, and Smith has been sacked 18 times over the past three weeks after being taken to the turf on five occasions by the Cardinals. The former No. 1 overall pick may be without his blind-side protector on Monday as well, with left tackle Joe Staley questionable after sustaining a concussion against Arizona. San Francisco doesn't throw the ball a whole lot, but young wide receiver Michael Crabtree (55 receptions, 2 TD) and athletic tight end Vernon Davis (49 receptions, 5 TD) have both been reliable targets for Smith.
Without question, what will transpire at the quarterback position for Pittsburgh will have a big impact on the outcome of this game. Though Batch is serviceable and experienced, it would be a stretch to believe he'll be able to slice through a top-tier defense like San Francisco's without a hitch, and it's a must that the Steelers mount some semblance of a passing threat because the 49ers are so good against the run. Even at far less than 100 percent, Roethlisberger gives his team its best chance of winning, though Pittsburgh's explosiveness on offense may be reduced if his arm strength is affected by the injury.
The 49ers will likely encounter some difficulty running the ball on Monday, especially with Gore not having been in top form lately, so it's absolutely critical that the team protects Smith sufficiently. San Francisco's quarterback has been sacked five or more times in four games this season, and the Niners are 1-3 in those tilts. If Woodley does indeed make it back, Pittsburgh will have a pass rush to be reckoned with regardless of Harrison's absence.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Lake Forest, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Bears wide receiver Johnny Knox had surgery Monday to stabilize a vertebra in his mid-to-lower back. The procedure was successful and the prognosis for Knox's football future is positive. No timetable has been set for his return.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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